I’ve come across two surveys recently that predict different results for gift card spending this holiday season.

The first survey, from Archstone Consulting Group predicts flat sales to sales dropping by 5%, which seems like a logical conclusion given the state of the economy. This is similar to what they predicted last year and they were right.

The second survey, from Givex, predicts that gift card spending will rise.

So who is right? Given that Givex is in the gift card businesss (they supply the infrastructure for gift cards), their results sound more like a press release. Archstone is a consulting company that serves many industries and seems like a less biased entity.

I suspect the Archstone’s predictions are more likely.